May 3, 2022: In this article we’re going to discuss signs of a bursting US growth stock bubble, the downturn in global markets more broadly, our investment outlook, and a good investment you can make on your own. How’s the bubble doing? (short answer: not well) In February, we suggested that …
Ukraine, Russia, and markets
March 7, 2022: Like everyone, we’ve been riveted and horrified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Some clients have asked about investment implications, so we put together a few thoughts below. For some perspective, Russia represented about 2% of global economic activity, and Ukraine a lot …
The beginning of the end of the bubble?
February 17, 2022: A year ago, we wrote a piece expressing the view that US growth stocks had entered a major speculative bubble. We didn’t know when that bubble would reach its peak, because that can only be known in hindsight. But we did suggest that it would peak at some point, and would …
What’s going on with inflation?
December 2, 2021: Inflation has been a hot topic as consumers have recently been hit with the fastest price increases in decades. Investors are wondering about the investment implications, and they are right to do so, as inflation can have a major impact on markets and valuations. This article …
What’s going on with housing?
October 15, 2021: In this article, we’ll discuss the housing market – the causes of the price boom, how sustainable they are, and how this compared to the mid-2000’s bubble. Why have home prices gone up so much? In the 12 months leading to July 2021, single family home prices increased by 20% …
A generational opportunity in value vs. growth
August 10, 2021: Back in late January, we argued that US growth stocks had become a full-scale bubble. Since then, some of the high-flying investments we wrote about have done quite poorly. Tesla and Gamestop both peaked within days of our article; they are down 21% and 56% respectively. An …
If there’s a bubble, why not go to cash?
March 4, 2021: We’ve gotten this question a few times: a bursting bubble in US growth stocks will likely drag everything down for a while; why not just sell out and wait for this to unfold? It’s a reasonable question, and we would love to be able to avoid a downturn if we thought it could …
US growth bubble part 2: how we’re investing
March 4, 2021: In our last article, we made the case for a major speculative bubble in US growth stocks . Below we’ll discuss how we are investing in this situation, starting with a look back at the last two major bubbles. The tech bubble – safety in value The US stock market declined by …
A major bubble in growth stocks
January 28, 2021: Stock markets have been surging higher, and our favored areas (international and emerging value stocks) really outperformed last quarter. But looking at the whole of 2020, the real craziness took place in growth stocks. In fact, we believe that US growth stocks have become a …
The investment impact of the election
October 29, 2020 We’ve been getting a lot of questions about the election and its potential impact on the stock market, so we wanted to write some thoughts on the topic. To begin with, we should mention that we have very low exposure to US stocks. This has nothing to do with the election, and …