Jan 23, 2023: Bursting bubbles and a historically bad year for balanced investment portfolios 2022 was the year where a lot of the imbalances that we've been writing about for quite some time finally started to unwind. There was absolute devastation in areas that we referred to last year as …
Weathering the markets’ worst first half in 50 years
July 8, 2022: Our primary goal is to help our clients grow their investments over time, and hugely important to that pursuit is the avoidance of disaster along the way. This means steering clear of market “wipeouts” – huge losses that can take years or potentially even decades to recover …
The bursting bubble(?), potential outcomes, and an opportunity in I Bonds
May 3, 2022: In this article we’re going to discuss signs of a bursting US growth stock bubble, the downturn in global markets more broadly, our investment outlook, and a good investment you can make on your own. How’s the bubble doing? (short answer: not well) In February, we suggested that …
Ukraine, Russia, and markets
March 7, 2022: Like everyone, we’ve been riveted and horrified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Some clients have asked about investment implications, so we put together a few thoughts below. For some perspective, Russia represented about 2% of global economic activity, and Ukraine a lot …
The beginning of the end of the bubble?
February 17, 2022: A year ago, we wrote a piece expressing the view that US growth stocks had entered a major speculative bubble. We didn’t know when that bubble would reach its peak, because that can only be known in hindsight. But we did suggest that it would peak at some point, and would …
What’s going on with inflation?
December 2, 2021: Inflation has been a hot topic as consumers have recently been hit with the fastest price increases in decades. Investors are wondering about the investment implications, and they are right to do so, as inflation can have a major impact on markets and valuations. This article …
What’s going on with housing?
October 15, 2021: In this article, we’ll discuss the housing market – the causes of the price boom, how sustainable they are, and how this compared to the mid-2000’s bubble. Why have home prices gone up so much? In the 12 months leading to July 2021, single family home prices increased by 20% …
A generational opportunity in value vs. growth
August 10, 2021: Back in late January, we argued that US growth stocks had become a full-scale bubble. Since then, some of the high-flying investments we wrote about have done quite poorly. Tesla and Gamestop both peaked within days of our article; they are down 21% and 56% respectively. An …
If there’s a bubble, why not go to cash?
March 4, 2021: We’ve gotten this question a few times: a bursting bubble in US growth stocks will likely drag everything down for a while; why not just sell out and wait for this to unfold? It’s a reasonable question, and we would love to be able to avoid a downturn if we thought it could …
US growth bubble part 2: how we’re investing
March 4, 2021: In our last article, we made the case for a major speculative bubble in US growth stocks . Below we’ll discuss how we are investing in this situation, starting with a look back at the last two major bubbles. The tech bubble – safety in value The US stock market declined by …