August 28, 2026: It's been another good year so far for stocks, which came roaring back after a brief panic about the Iran war. This turn of events showed once again how risky it is to trade based on geopolitical headlines. Stocks: no longer cheap, but still worth owning Despite the strong …
The Iran conflict and markets
March 10, 2026: We occasionally write about the perils of investing based on newsworthy events. Our reasoning is that if you’re reading about it in the news, it’s already priced into markets, so you can only “win” if you know something the consensus doesn’t. This view is especially well …
Signs of a changing trend
February 18, 2026: It is a feature of financial markets that trends often overshoot. Most trends start for good economic reasons, and many fade once prices come to reflect the new reality. But some take on a life of their own. Investors start to believe that the trend is the new reality of …
High hopes, modest prospects: rethinking housing’s investment potential
I talk to a lot of people about real estate, and I find that most of them have fairly high expectations for housing’s investment potential. It’s not just a Southern California thing: in a recent Gallup poll, 37% of Americans chose real estate as "the best long-term investment.” My own view is …
Lessons from the rally; opportunities in a frenzied market
September 22, 2025: Our previous article came out in the midst of a full-blown market panic over U.S. tariff policy. At the time, we wrote that a lot of bad news had already been priced in, and that it was unclear whether the actual outcome would be worse than what investors had already …
Thoughts on the tariff selloff
April 4, 2025: Below are some quick thoughts on this week’s financial and market news. What happened? The Trump administration announced tariffs that were significantly steeper and broader than expected. Stock markets have reacted very negatively, with US stocks down over 10% in the two days …
Six things we believe about investing
February 4, 2025: Below we’ll share our views on six important principles guiding our investing approach: Seek out reliable sources of long-term return Maintain patience and composure Avoid return-eroding temptations Be very mindful of price paid Diversify across multiple …
Sizing up the year for stocks and bonds
January 6, 2025: The US stock market had a great year, but returns were only modestly positive for international stocks, and barely positive for bonds. Turning to stocks first: US companies did grow their earnings more than their international peers, but a substantial portion of US stock …
Market timing, stock opportunities, AI, and San Diego housing
October 8, 2024: In this article we’re going to talk about market timing and why it’s so hard to get right, including some entertaining evidence from a new study. After that we’ll do a quick tour through some interesting items regarding stock market opportunities, AI, and renting vs. buying in …
Opportunity up and down the risk spectrum
April 29, 2024: Until recently, it had been a long time since investors were able to expect much from the non-stock side of their portfolios. The low- to no- interest rate environment over the prior decade was a nice thing for borrowers — think 3% mortgages — but it really weighed down returns …