March 10, 2026: We occasionally write about the perils of investing based on newsworthy events. Our reasoning is that if you’re reading about it in the news, it’s already priced into markets, so you can only “win” if you know something the consensus doesn’t. This view is especially well …
Signs of a changing trend
February 18, 2026: It is a feature of financial markets that trends often overshoot. Most trends start for good economic reasons, and many fade once prices come to reflect the new reality. But some take on a life of their own. Investors start to believe that the trend is the new reality of …
Lessons from the rally; opportunities in a frenzied market
September 22, 2025: Our previous article came out in the midst of a full-blown market panic over U.S. tariff policy. At the time, we wrote that a lot of bad news had already been priced in, and that it was unclear whether the actual outcome would be worse than what investors had already …
Thoughts on the tariff selloff
April 4, 2025: Below are some quick thoughts on this week’s financial and market news. What happened? The Trump administration announced tariffs that were significantly steeper and broader than expected. Stock markets have reacted very negatively, with US stocks down over 10% in the two days …
Sizing up the year for stocks and bonds
January 6, 2025: The US stock market had a great year, but returns were only modestly positive for international stocks, and barely positive for bonds. Turning to stocks first: US companies did grow their earnings more than their international peers, but a substantial portion of US stock …
Market timing, stock opportunities, AI, and San Diego housing
October 8, 2024: In this article we’re going to talk about market timing and why it’s so hard to get right, including some entertaining evidence from a new study. After that we’ll do a quick tour through some interesting items regarding stock market opportunities, AI, and renting vs. buying in …
Opportunity up and down the risk spectrum
April 29, 2024: Until recently, it had been a long time since investors were able to expect much from the non-stock side of their portfolios. The low- to no- interest rate environment over the prior decade was a nice thing for borrowers — think 3% mortgages — but it really weighed down returns …
The spectacular rise and fall of the bond market
October 11, 2023: In this article, we’ll discuss the history-making rise and fall in bonds and the potential opportunities that have resulted from it. The rise (to exceedingly high prices) Bonds don’t typically get much press, as the media and most people are more interested in stocks. (We …
Don’t make extra payments on your low-rate mortgage — play bank instead
August 25, 2023: In this quick article, we want to talk about when it makes sense to make early mortgage payments. This article was inspired by a Twitter post we saw by someone who is making extra payments on a 3% mortgage, and the surprising (to us) positive response it got from many other …
Building better financial plans, stress in the banking system, and an update on markets & I bonds
May 17, 2023: In this article we'll discuss a new financial planning/portfolio tool we've added to our arsenal, as well as sharing our current thoughts on I bonds, the problems in the banking system, and the general market outlook. A next-generation tool to build better financial plans Old-time …